## Posts Tagged ‘**Monte Carlo**’

## Rare Probabilities

The probability that you would be struck by a meteor in a given hour is about 8.3 × 10^{-15}.

The age of the universe is about 13.7 billion years, or 1.2 × 10

^{14}hours. An extreme underestimate would be that a meteorite hit the earth only once during this time span. Then the probability that such a disaster would happen in a given hour is the inverse of the above number, about 8.3 × 10^{-15}. This rather sloppy calculation provides a rough idea of how small the probability 10^{-15}is. Iba and Hukushima recently succeeded in generating rare events with probabilities as small as 10^{-60}on a computer.

From here.

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